Published inINCERTOA Few Things We Don’t Quite Get About the Levant(First Draft of the Foreword to Pierre Zalloua’s forthcoming book. For comments.)May 12, 20243.5K79May 12, 20243.5K79
Published inINCERTOBitcoin is the Detector of Imbeciles:On The Cluster of Charlatans, Zero Interest Rate Virgins, & Crypto TumorsJan 4, 20233.3K72Jan 4, 20233.3K72
Published inINCERTOHow I write(Preface to the 15th year Italian edition of The Black Swan)Oct 30, 20225.4K72Oct 30, 20225.4K72
Published inINCERTOOn ChristianityAn essay as a foreword for Tom Holland’s DominionAug 25, 20222.2K18Aug 25, 20222.2K18
Published inINCERTONo, Covid 19 is not an old person problemClearly Covid affects the old, disproportionately. But so do practically almost all other ailments. A simple fact of life, in a population…Nov 29, 20213.2K2Nov 29, 20213.2K2
Published inINCERTOSnowden, Phony hence Traitor?When you catch someone with a shoddy-but-carefully-curated story, Edward Snowden, producing the mother of bad faith arguments (in effect…Aug 9, 20213.3K12Aug 9, 20213.3K12
Published inINCERTOSafe HeavenForeword to Mark Spitznagel’s book Safe Haven [Amazon]May 6, 20213.3K26May 6, 20213.3K26
Published inINCERTOMaestro BogomolnyForeword for Cut the Knot: Probability Riddles by Alexander B.Nov 18, 20201.7K8Nov 18, 20201.7K8
Published inINCERTOReligion, Violence, Tolerance & Progress: Nothing to do with TheologyReligions create highly differentiated belief clusters and mentalities that have little to do with their theologies.Oct 21, 20204.91K50Oct 21, 20204.91K50
Lebanon: from Ponzi to AntifragilityAbout two years before the recent collapse, at a dinner, a then (slow thinking) member of the Lebanese parliament kept bugging me for an…Jul 10, 20203.3K14Jul 10, 20203.3K14
Published inINCERTOThe Masks MasqueradeIncompetence and Errors in Reasoning Around Face CoveringJun 14, 202053Jun 14, 202053
Published inINCERTOCorporate Socialism: The Government is Bailing Out Investors & Managers Not You(With Mark Spitznagel)Mar 26, 202047Mar 26, 202047
Published inINCERTOIQ is largely a pseudoscientific swindleBackground : “IQ” is a stale test meant to measure mental capacity but in fact mostly measures extreme unintelligence (learning…Jan 2, 2019187Jan 2, 2019187
Published inINCERTOPedophrasty, Bigoteering, and Other Modern ScamsClearing the discourse of abuses and abusers. The more you institutionalize rules of ethical behavior that should be voluntary (say…Jun 20, 201860Jun 20, 201860
Published inINCERTOWhat do I mean by Skin in the Game? My Own VersionWhen selecting a surgeon for your next brain procedure, should you pick a surgeon who looks like a butcher or one who looks like a surgeon…Mar 5, 201890Mar 5, 201890
Published inINCERTOPutting Skin in the Game into the Reviewers of Skin in the Game(Skin in the Game was embargoed (meaning no copy was sent to reviewers), as the book explains the agency problem of reviewers. Three UK…Feb 25, 201848Feb 25, 201848
Published inEast Med Project: History, Philology, and GeneticsNon, le libanais n’est pas un « dialecte arabe»Traduction par Emilio El-Dib, auteur du Liban expliqué à mes proches.Feb 7, 20185Feb 7, 20185
Published inEast Med Project: History, Philology, and GeneticsNo, Levantine is not a “dialect of” ArabicSUMMARY: Lebanese (more broadly North Levantine) is influenced by Arabic (as well as other languages, such as Aramaic and…Jan 2, 201889Jan 2, 201889
Published inINCERTOThe Logic of Risk TakingA central chapter that crystallizes all my work. In forth. Skin in the GameAug 25, 2017120Aug 25, 2017120
Published inINCERTOHow to be Rational about Rationality[One of the more technical (and optional) chapters, at the end of Skin of the Game]Aug 21, 201789Aug 21, 201789